The Denver Film Society held a strategic betting panel on the Academy Awards before Sunday’s big day. Ok, so it wasn’t exactly strategic, but their monthly Cinema Salon, held at the Denver Film Center, was an educated preview of Oscar picks. With a panel lineup that included some of Denver’s most savvy movie minds, you could certainly place some confident bets.

Robert Denerstein was film critic for the Rocky Mountain News for 27 years and still posts insightful reviews on his blog, denersteinunleashed.com. Additional to being a filmmaker, Denerstein moderates the Colorado Cinema Salon. His panel included Britta Erickson, Director of the Starz Denver Film Festival and she has programmed many festival films that have gone on to win Oscars. Also on board was Denver Post film critic, Lisa Kennedy who routinely posits thoughtful musings on her “Diary of a Mad Moviegoer.”

More impressive still was the inclusion of Denver’s own Oscaradamus, Denver Film Society member Bob Becker. He is “the best Oscar predictor in the history of the Film Society’s pick-the-winners contest,” according to the DFS. Beyond discussing Oscar picks, the panel covered some provoking questions about the relevance of the awards.

The Academy has certainly seen a dwindling audience for the Oscar broadcast, even though the award is a defining cultural marker for those that win. Erickson admitted she is an unabashed fan of the Oscars. She said, “There are fewer blockbusters nominated and the proliferation of awards shows has had a diminishing effect on audiences. As much as we are beaten over the head with the predicted winners, the awards still hold a few surprises.”

The only blockbusters nominated, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2” and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon,” are the 2 highest grossing films of the year at over $1 Billion each. They are nominated in technical categories only, even though Erickson would have liked to see Alan Rickman nominated for his final go as Professor Snape.

Kennedy noted that the highest grossing Best Picture nominee this year is “The Help,” which since its release in August has grossed over $200 million. She added, “Independent films use the Oscars as a way to market their films. The ceremony is also a way for the industry to create a bond with audiences.”

So, do the Oscars still matter? Becker offered, “People will watch the ceremony. They may not remember who won, but they will remember moments, such as Jack Palance doing push-ups on stage or Adrian Brody kissing Halley Berry.”

While the awards still have marketing value, the ceremony has lost some steam historically. Denerstein explained, “There is an overexposure of actors now in the media. There is not a sense of the God’s coming down from Olympus for the night.”

With actors, there is also the issue of who is being nominated in which category. For instance Kenneth Branagh is nominated for Best Supporting Actor in “My Week with Marilyn,” but isn’t his role more a co-lead? Kennedy explained, “It’s the film’s distributor that decides who gets nominated for what category, not the Academy.”

That raises the issue of Oscar campaigns as well, where big studios like Sony Pictures Classics, The Weinstein Company, and Fox Searchlight Pictures, spent exuberant amounts on full page ads in trade magazines. Erickson half-joked, “Harvey Weinstein’s budget for Oscar campaigns is probably larger than some of his film budgets.”

Can campaigning really have an effect on voters? Perhaps, but Erickson raised a more interesting experiment where an Annenberg study on Twitter Trending predicted award winners. She mentioned that of this year’s nominees, Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” had the highest trending. Though, this would have more relevance if the Oscars were a people’s choice award.

Everyone in attendance at the Cinema Salon had an Oscar Ballot on hand that they could submit for prizes. Here is what the panel offered on some of the categories:

Best Documentary Feature

Erickson said her favorite to win is “Undefeated.” Becker, Kennedy and Denerstein think “Pina,” Wim Wender’s 3D exploration of choreographer Pina Bausch, will prevail. Becker noted his favorite of the year was snubbed, “Project Nim” and Kennedy added that her favorite wasn’t nominated either, “Nostalgia for the Light.”

Best Foreign Language Film

The panel was unanimous that the favorite, “A Separation” will win. As Denerstein noted, “it would be a big moment for Iranian Cinema.”

Best Animated Feature

The panel seemed a bit mucky here, but Denerstein seemed to gather up a consensus that “Rango” will pull it off.

Best Supporting Actress

Another unanimous nod went to Octavia Spencer for her performance in “The Help.”

Best Supporting Actor

Denerstein would like to see Nick Nolte win for his performance in “Warrior,” just to see what he would do for his acceptance speech. He followed this with a story about Nolte nonchalantly roaming the Telluride Film Festival in the pajamas. Yet, the panel was again unanimous that Christopher Plummer will win for his performance in “Beginners.”

Best Director

While Denerstein and Becker are following the lead of the Directors Guild of America Awards, with Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist,” Kennedy and Erickson feel Scorsese may swoop in for the upset with “Hugo.”

Best Actress

Viola Davis in “The Help” is the obvious favorite to win, but the panel seemed to waver between her and the possibility of Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady.”

Best Actor

Becker is going with the statistical pick based on the Screen Actors Guild Award historically preceding the Oscar. This year it went to Jean Dujardin in “The Artist.” Erickson said she feels Brad Pitt deserves it most for his performance in “Moneyball,” but that the Academy will more likely give it to their golden boy, George Clooney in “The Descendants.”

Best Picture

All personal choices aside, the panel could not find reason beyond this year’s projected favorite to win, “The Artist.” Who would they vote for? Kennedy seemed taken by “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” but raised her arms victoriously when Erickson put her faith in “Moneyball.” Although it was accompanied with some grumbles from the audience, Denerstein revealed his favorite to be “The Tree of Life.”

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